We know what's just around the corner, so why will it come as such a shock ?

We know what's just around the corner, so why will it come as such a shock ?

 "IMF warns of "super taper tantrum" risk" , The Financial Times , p.6

 Amongst other things, it's the IMF's job to warn us of impending dangers which is presumably why one official or another is on his or her feet on a daily basis, it seems. Yesterday it was the turn of their director of monetary and capital markets Jose Vinals, who warned that US rate rises could provoke unprecedented market turmoil. Recent disappointing US data has put back expectations for the start of the rate-raising cycle, but it's possible that the Q1 numbers were adversely affected by the harsh winter  --  it's happened before. Whatever the timing, the markets assume it's coming so why should it be so dangerous ? 

 A number of reasons, according to Mr Vinals. The vulnerability of not only emerging markets to rate-hikes and a stronger dollar (we've spoken about this),  but also that of non-banking financial sectors such as life insurance, for example. It's also true that futures markets are pricing in a shallower and slower rise in rates than the Fed itself expects. Maybe most importantly , he points out that we are in "uncharted territory" (no such cycle has ever begun from a starting-point of near-zero rates), and that changes in the bond markets that have reduced liquidity will mean greatly increased volatility. Quite reasonably, officials offer these portentous warnings to encourage those involved to prepare themselves accordingly. The worry is that not all will, or even can.