27/2/15
Brazil........where did it all go wrong ?
This week's
Economist devotes plenty of copy to the economic situation
faced by Brazil (see "In a quagmire", p.12, Shumpeter's
"Brazil's business woes" p.70, "Brazil's coming recession"
p.71). It seems redundant to point out the general tone is less than
optimistic.
The country's financial fortunes have always been famously
topsy-turvy, but it seems just moments ago that we were
lauding a tigerish economy that had grown to be the 7th largest in the
world. Now the future looks bleak as Brazil faces recession and huge debt
repayment. ..... and nothing seems to sum things up so much as the sight of
Petrobras, the state-controlled and hugely important oil giant, up to its neck
in a corruption scandal and its debt reduced to junk status ......
The Rouble ...... rally or "dead cat bounce" ?
The Financial
Times (Currencies p.34) examines the recent rise in the value
of the Russian rouble. We've been so used to talking of the currency's weakness
that its new-found strength comes as something of a surprise. The
rationale behind it ? Stabilising oil prices, a ceasefire in Ukraine and a
suspicion that the West lacks the stomach to increase sanctions, apparently.
It's hard to escape the notion that FX traders may take some convincing that
these factors will continue to hold water on any long-term basis.....
It's not all bad....
Tony Barber in the
Financial Times (Shafts of Sunlight..... p.13) takes a
refreshingly upbeat view of the European economic scene. The article includes
a slightly rosier take on the Greece question that has commonly been put
forward of late and an appreciation of recent German domestic measures. It
even has a pat on the back for France and Italy, Whatever next ?
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